At Metaculus, our aim is to improve human decision-making and coordination at scale by increasing analytic capacity, reasoning, and judgment. With the unique capabilities of the Metaculus forecasting platform, our innovative programs, and our long-term partnerships, we enable a range of stakeholders and contributors to engage in a process of collective reasoning, forecasting, and ultimately, more informed action. Via this process, we are fostering a worldwide positive-sum collaboration network that develops and aggregates the most accurate forecasts on topics of global importance, a network that spans across nonprofits, government agencies, and institutions, to individual forecasters, researchers, students, and authors.
We are seeking an energetic, forecast-question author focused on all things effective altruism, following a generous Effective Altruism Infrastructure Fund
grant to Metaculus. The EA Question Author will be tasked with collecting input from the wider EA community on which forecasting causes
Metaculus should focus on, and coordinating forecasting series that address key EA themes, managing their progress through the Metaculus platform, and subsequently generating summary write-ups that are useful to the broader EA community.
In this role the candidate will:
- Write and crisply operationalize EA-relevant forecast questions in the Metaculus forecast question house style, and identify gaps where forecast questions would be edifying but don’t yet exist
- Make introductions between Metaculus and EA-affiliated groups/individuals who have forecasting needs that can be satisfied by Metaculus
- Conduct original and thoroughgoing research in order to connect a forecasting topic to the most effective forecasting approach, which at times will require significant quantitative skills
- Do targeted research relevant to specific forecasting series
- Convene and lead a once-a-month prioritization council to collect input from other EAs in order to identify forecasting causes for Metaculus to pursue
- Develop clear resolution criteria for the questions the candidate publishes, such that the resolutions of this or that question are uncontroversial
- Resolve the questions they publish, which itself entails tracking dozens of questions and determining when one has been satisfyingly answered according to carefully constructed resolution criteria
- Respond to user comments on forecast questions in a timely, thoughtful manner, integrating valid critiques into forecast question structures
- In order to put forecasts into context, candidates will find it helpful to be able to perform various statistical analyses on forecasting datasets, but this is not a strict requirement
The ideal candidate possesses the following qualities, roughly in decreasing order of importance:
- Extensive working knowledge of EA concepts, current research, and major players
- Has a researcher mindset, and is able to dig into complex topics and emerge with useful, communicable, condensed information
- Has a demonstrated passion for quantified forecasting
- Able to identify, source, utilize, and cite quality research, information, and data for integration into forecast questions
- Is a strong writer and a good self-editor, able to write with clarity and rigor for an audience of experts and intelligent laypersons
- Is able to work independently and productively without the need of extensive oversight
- Has formal experience as a researcher in industry or academia
- Has already published forecast questions on Metaculus
- Is a talented poster, generally well-liked, able to comment frequently and constructively on message boards, adding value to the community
- Has strong ties to the EA community, in the form of relationships with organizations and individuals embedded in the community
Metaculus offers competitive compensation and flexible benefits. Metaculus is an equal opportunity employer that knows and appreciates the benefits of a diverse workforce.
This is a remote position and offers flexible hours (between UTC -8 and +3) and asynchronous collaboration with a motivated, high-energy team. We review applications on a rolling basis.